Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
